From Triggers to Thresholds
Most days don’t start with a threat, but with friction. I use scenario thinking as a decision tree: triggers, competing hypotheses, indicators, and thresholds. The goal isn’t prediction. It’s readiness without alarmism.
How I Use Scenario Thinking in Protective Intelligence
Most days do not start with a threat. They start with friction.
A schedule compresses. A venue changes. A phone buzzes, then another news feed. A driver asks a question that needs an answer now. A principal wants reassurance without drama, and the team wants clarity without overreacting. In that space, I rarely get the luxury of certainty. I still have to decide.
At the height of my career, I was actively and passively monitoring 12 to 15 WhatsApp groups. Then came all the one-to-one chats, emails, and calls. When we traveled, temporary groups were added, new contacts appeared, calls increased, and venues and events multiplied on top of what was already there. Luckily, over the years I built a strong international, multidisciplinary team around me, so I could focus on the organizational, tactical, and strategic side of the project. But that overload is real. And still your client wants you present. That presence is non-negotiable. Out of sight, out of mind, but also out of touch with reality if you live only behind screens.